Exchange Rate Shocks, Export Dynamics and Macroeconomic Performance

Santiago Camara

2019-11-07 - Export elasticities to exchange rate shocks are known to be low. This paper shows that the response of exports to real exchange rate shocks differs significantly depending of the sign of the shock. Real depreciation shocks lead to a slow reaction of exports with nil or even negative response on impact. Real appreciation shocks lead to a drop on impact and an overall elasticity two or three times greater. I present evidence that the extensive and intensive margins play different roles depending on the sign of the shock. In periods of real depreciations the extensive and sub-extensive margins play a predominant role, while in periods of real appreciation the intensive region dominates. Finally, I argue that firm level learning in international trade is a key the underlying forces behind this asymmetric dynamics and present evidence to support this hypothesis.